HomeNews & Events 2016/2017 CROP FORECAST SURVEY BY HON. DORA SILIYA, MP MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE

2016/2017 CROP FORECAST SURVEY BY HON. DORA SILIYA, MP MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

IT IS MY PLEASURE TO ANNOUNCE TO THE NATION, THE COUNTRY’S ESTIMATED CROP PRODUCTION FOR THE 2016/2017 AGRICULTURAL SEASON AS WELL AS THE COUNTRY’S NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE FOR THE MARKETING SEASON COVERING THE PERIOD 1ST MAY 2017 TO 30TH APRIL 2018.

 

 

THE CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATES THAT I AM ANNOUNCING TODAY ARE BASED ON A UNIVERSALLY APPLIED SCIENTIFIC SURVEY METHOD THAT IS USED EVERY YEAR. THE SURVEY IS JOINTLY CONDUCTED BY THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE (CSO) AND COVERS ALL THE DISTRICTS OF THE COUNTRY.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN,

IN THE 2016/2017 AGRICULTURAL SEASON THE NATION RECEIVED GOOD RAINFALL TO SUPPORT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION. HOWEVER, CROP PRODUCTION WAS THREATENED BY AN OUTBREAK OF THE FALL ARMY WORMS WHICH ATTACKED MAIZE FIELDS COUNTRYWIDE. THERE WERE ALSO REPORTS OF RED LOCUSTS IN SELECTED PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

 

IN ORDER TO COUNTER THE THREAT POSED BY THESE PESTS TO THE COUNTRY’S FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY, GOVERNMENT PUT IN PLACE SEVERAL INTERVENTIONS SUCH AS THE DISTRIBUTION OF FREE CHEMICALS AND SEED FOR REPLANTING TO THE AFFECTED FARMERS. AS A RESULT OF THE GOOD RAINFALL, PEST OUTBREAK CONTROL, TIMELY INPUT DISTRIBUTION AND HIGH PRICES OF SOME COMMODITIES LAST SEASON, THE PRODUCTION OF SEVERAL CROPS HAS BEEN FORECAST TO INCREASE.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN,

PRODUCTION OF MILLET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 8.65 PERCENT TO 32,566 METRIC TONNES FROM 29,973 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. PRODUCTION OF RICE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 44.04 PERCENT TO 38,423 METRIC TONNES FROM 26,675 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

 

PRODUCTION OF GROUNDNUTS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 28.23 PERCENT TO 168,699 METRIC TONNES FROM 131,562 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

 

PRODUCTION OF MIXED BEANS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY 1.29 PERCENT TO 45,938 METRIC TONNES FROM 45,351 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

 

THE PRODUCTION OF BURLEY TOBACCO IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 29.95 PERCENT TO 8,416 METRIC TONNES FROM 6,476 METRIC TONNES WHILE PRODUCTION OF VIRGINIA IS FORECAST TO REDUCE BY 3.68 PERCENT TO 12,079 METRIC TONNES FROM 12,540 METRIC TONNES.

 

PRODUCTION OF SORGHUM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 22.9 PERCENT TO 17,337 METRIC TONNES FROM 14,107 METRIC TONNE LAST SEASON. 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN,

PRODUCTION OF SOYA BEANS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 31.38 PERCENT TO 351,416 METRIC TONNES FROM 267,490 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE NATIONAL YIELD RATE FOR SOYA BEANS HAS REDUCED BY 17.33 PERCENT FROM 1.84 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARES LAST SEASON TO 1.52 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE. THE AREA PLANTED TO SOYA BEANS INCREASED BY 58.91 PERCENT FROM 145,763 HECTARES TO 231,630 HECTARES.

 

OF THIS PRODUCTION OF SOYA BEANS, OUR SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE FARMERS ACCOUNT FOR 150,994 METRIC TONNES. THERE IS 131 PERCENT INCREASE IN SOYA BEANS PRODUCTION BY SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE FARMERS FROM 65,304 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE NUMBER OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE FARMERS PRODUCING SOYA BEANS HAS INCREASED BY 82 PERCENT. THIS SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE FARMERS TAKING UP SOYA BEANS PRODUCTION IS EVIDENCE OF GOVERNMENT’S DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGY BEARING FRUIT.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN,

ACCORDING TO THE CROP FORECAST SURVEY RESULTS, NATIONAL CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT PRODUCTION FOR THE 2016/2017 SEASON HAS BEEN FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 8.12 PERCENT TO 923,795 METRIC TONNES COMPARED TO 854,393 METRIC TONNES OF CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT, PRODUCED DURING THE LAST SEASON. THE INCREASE IN PRODUCTION OF CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT IS ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASED MARKET PROSPECTS THAT HAVE COME UP IN THE CASSAVA VALUE CHAIN SUCH AS BREWING, AND MEALIE MEAL, CASSAVA BLENDS EXPECTED TO BE PRODUCED BY THE MILLERS WITH A READY MARKET IN OUR SCHOOLS, HOSPITALS, PRISONS AND DISASTER MOMENTS AND OTHER VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES.

 

THE WHEAT CROP FOR THE 2016/2017 SEASON IS CURRENTLY BEING PLANTED. HOWEVER, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE 193,713 METRIC TONNES FROM AN ESTIMATED PLANTED AREA OF 26,773 HECTARES. THE COUNTRY HAS 54,522 METRIC TONNES OF CARRY-OVER STOCKS OF WHEAT AS AT 30TH APRIL 2017. WHEAT REQUIREMENTS HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED AT 395,000 METRIC TONNES FOR THE 2017/2018 SEASON. A DETAILED ESTIMATE FOR THE ANTICIPATED WHEAT PRODUCTION FOR THE 2017/2018 SEASON WILL BE PROVIDED LATER IN THE SEASON.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN,

PRODUCTION OF SEED COTTON IS FORECAST TO DECREASE BY 20.2 PERCENT TO 89,293 METRIC TONNES FROM 111,902 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE AREA PLANTED TO SEED COTTON DECREASED BY 18.35 PERCENT FROM 139,195 HECTARES LAST SEASON TO 113,649 HECTARES THIS SEASON. THE REDUCTION IN SEED COTTON PRODUCTION IS DUE TO FARMERS SWITCHING TO OTHER CROPS NOTABLY SOYA BEANS AND MAIZE.

 

PRODUCTION OF SWEET POTATOES IS FORECAST TO DECREASE BY 10.87 PERCENT TO 206,676 METRIC TONNES FROM 231,882 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN,

 

MAIZE PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 3,606,549 METRIC TONNES FROM 2,873,052 METRIC TONNES IN THE 2015/2016 SEASON, AN INCREASE OF 25.53 PERCENT. THE NATIONAL AVERAGE YIELD RATE FOR MAIZE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 2.19 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE FROM 2.10 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE LAST SEASON. THIS REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OF 4.18 PERCENT. SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE FARMERS HAVE RECORDED AN AVERAGE MAIZE YIELD RATE OF 2.12 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE, WHILST LARGE SCALE FARMERS HAVE RECORDED AN AVERAGE MAIZE YIELD RATE OF 5.24 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE.

 

THE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE HIGH PRODUCTION OF MAIZE ARE INCREASED AREA PLANTED, FAVOURABLE AGRO METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, USAGE OF FERTILIZER ON MAIZE BY FARMERS INCREASED BY 26.42 PERCENT IN 2016/2017 COMPARED TO LAST SEASON.  THE AREA UNDER MAIZE INCREASED BY 20.5 PERCENT TO 1,644,741 HECTARES IN THE 2015/2016 SEASON FROM 1,364,977 HECTARES LAST SEASON. AREA EXPECTED TO BE HARVESTED ALSO INCREASED BY 23.86 PER CENT TO 1,433,944 METRIC TONNES FROM 1,157,755 METRIC TONNES.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN,

THE NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE SHEET FOR THE 2017/2018 MARKETING SEASON BASED ON THE CROP FORECASTING SURVEY SHOWS THAT THE COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED SUFFICIENT MAIZE FOR BOTH HUMAN CONSUMPTION AND INDUSTRIAL USE.

 

AS ALREADY STATED, TOTAL MAIZE PRODUCTION IN THE 2016/2017 SEASON HAS BEEN ESTIMATED TO BE 3,606,549 METRIC TONNES. THE COUNTRY ALSO HAS A MAIZE CARRY-OVER STOCK AMOUNTING TO 569,317 METRIC TONNES AS AT 1ST MAY, 2016. OF THIS AMOUNT, THE FOOD RESERVE AGENCY (FRA) IS HOLDING 270,254 METRIC TONNES, THE GRAIN TRADERS ASSOCIATION IS HOLDING 206,388 METRIC TONNES, LARGE SCALE FARMS ARE HOLDING 4,503 METRIC TONNES AND SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE FARMERS ARE HOLDING 28,172 METRIC TONNES. WHEN THE MAIZE CARRY-OVER STOCK FROM LAST SEASON IS ADDED TO THE MAIZE PRODUCTION FOR THE 2016/2017 AGRICULTURAL SEASON, THE TOTAL SUPPLY OF MAIZE AVAILABLE FOR THE 2017/2018 MARKETING SEASON IS 4,175,866 METRIC TONNES.

 

FOR THE CURRENT POPULATION, THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET SHOWS THAT TOTAL MAIZE REQUIRED FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION, INDUSTRIAL USE AND OTHER COMMITMENTS AMOUNTS TO 2,997,350 METRIC TONNES. THE TOTAL MAIZE REQUIREMENTS INCLUDE AN ANTICIPATED NATIONAL STRATEGIC RESERVE STOCK OF 500,000 METRIC TONNES TO BE HELD BY THE FOOD RESERVE AGENCY.

 

WHEN TOTAL MAIZE REQUIREMENTS ARE SUBTRACTED FROM TOTAL MAIZE AVAILABILITY, THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET INDICATES THAT THE COUNTRY HAS RECORDED A MAIZE SURPLUS OF 1,178,516 METRIC TONNES.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN,

 

LAST YEAR’S AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SEASON WAS VERY UNIQUE TO THE COUNTRY AND THE SADC REGION BECAUSE ZAMBIA IS ONE OF THE FEW COUNTRIES THAT HAD SURPLUS MAIZE PRODUCTION. AS SUCH, THE COUNTRY EXPERIENCED INCREASED PRESSURE ON THE MAIZE STOCKS AND SEVERAL MEASURES SUCH AS RESTRICTIONS ON THE EXPORT OF MAIZE AND MAIZE PRODUCTS WERE PUT IN PLACE TO SAFEGUARD THE FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY OF THE NATION.

 

THE MINISTRY IS CURRENTLY, CONDUCTING CONSULTATIONS ON THE 2017 MARKETING MODALITIES THAT THE FRA WILL IMPLEMENT IN THE PURCHASE OF STRATEGIC FOOD RESERVES. THE MAIZE MARKETING MODALITIES UNDER FRA WILL BE ANNOUNCED AFTER THE COMPLETION OF CONSULTATIONS WITH STAKEHOLDERS AND CABINET.

 

I WOULD LIKE TO ENCOURAGE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO ACTIVELY PARTICIPATE IN AGRICULTURE MARKETING, PARTICULARLY MAIZE MARKETING. IN ORDER TO ENCOURAGE THE PARTICIPATION OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR, I AM PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE THE FOLLOWING MEASURES:

 

  1. EXPORT BAN ON MAIZE AND MAIZE PRODUCTS IS HERE BY LIFTED;
  2. FRA WILL PURCHASE UP TO 500,000 METRIC TONNES OF COMMODITIES INCLUDING MAIZE FOR STRATEGIC FOOD RESERVES.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN,

 

LET ME CONCLUDE BY ONCE AGAIN COMMENDING OUR HARD WORKING FARMERS, OUT-GROWERS, AGRO-DEALERS AND MANY OTHERS IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR FOR THEIR HARD WORK AND EFFORT THIS SEASON. I ENCOURAGE THEM TO CONTINUE DIVERSIFYING THEIR CROP PRODUCTION AND TO TAKE AGRICULTURE AS A BUSINESS.  I ALSO WISH TO ADVISE OUR FARMERS TO USE COOPERATIVES TO THEIR ADVANTAGE AND NEGOTIATE THE BEST PRICE TO AVOID BEING TAKEN ADVANGE OF BY TRADERS OF COMMODITIES.

 

MY MINISTRY WILL SOON HOLD A STAKEHOLDERS MEETING TO DISCUSS THE FUTURE OF COMMODITY TRADING IN ZAMBIA.  YOU MAY ALSO WISH TO NOTE THAT REVIEW OF THE FRA MANDATE AND LEGISLATION ALLOWING THE FRA POLICY SHIFT IN IN NOVEMBER 2016 HAS ALSO BEGAN.  THE ABOVE STEPS WILL ASSIST IN IDENTIFYING THE MOST SUITABLE AGGREGATOR PLATFORM AND PROVIDE CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE FARMER AND COMMODITY BUYER.

 

 

I THANK YOU.

 

 

Latest News

TALKING NOTES - FISP E-VOUCHER

 I WISH TO WELCOME YOU ALL TO THIS IMPORTANT INFORMATION SHARING EVENT.  THIS BREAKFAST MEETING HAS BEEN CALLED TO SHARE INFORMATION ON PROGRESS MADE IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE E-VOUCHER SYSTEM FOR THE 2017/2018 AGRICULTURAL SEASON.

Read more...

Events Calendar

November 2017
S M T W T F S
29 30 31 1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 1 2

Crop Forecast

National Food Balance for Zambia for the 2013/2014 Agricultural Marketing Season

Read more...

Login Form



Go to top